globals [ time ;; how many clock ticks have passed in the model color-mode ;; 0 = normal, 1 = when heard, 2 = times heard clique ;; how many patches have heard the rumor ;; Modifications to make this an "Information Age" Rumor Mill rumor-target ;; the patch that is the "target" of the rumor event-just-witnessed? ;; needed for the "witnesses always talk" feature emails-sent ;; the total number of emails sent new-emails-sent ;; for plotting emails sent per period ] patches-own [ times-heard ;; tracks times the rumor has been heard first-heard ;; clock tick when first heard the rumor just-heard? ;; tracks whether rumor was heard this round -- resets each round ;; Modifications to make this an "Information Age" Rumor Mill heard-via ;; how did we last hear the rumor? (word-of-mouth via email) times-emailed ;; tracks how many times the rumor has been emailed ] ;;; setup procedures to setup [seed-one?] ca set time 0 set color-mode 0 set clique 0 set emails-sent 0 set new-emails-sent 0 ;; Pick the "target" of the rumor set rumor-target (patch (screen-edge-x - (random (2 * screen-edge-x))) (screen-edge-y - (random (2 * screen-edge-y)))) ask patches [ set first-heard -1 set times-heard 0 set times-emailed 0 set just-heard? false recolor ] ifelse seed-one? [ seed-one ] [ seed-random ] ;; The embarassing event just occured if witnesses-always-talk? [ set event-just-witnessed? true ] update do-plots end to seed-one ;; tell the center patch the rumor ask patch 0 0 [ hear-rumor ] end to seed-random ;; seed with random number of rumor sources governed by init-clique slider ask patches with [times-heard = 0] [ if (random 100.0) < init-clique [ hear-rumor ] ] end to go if not any patches with [times-heard = 0] [ stop ] set time (time + 1) ask patches [ if times-heard > 0 [ spread-rumor ] ] if event-just-witnessed? [ set event-just-witnessed? false ] update do-plots end to spread-rumor ;; patch procedure locals [neighbor max-care-distance people-to-email] set people-to-email [] ;; empty list (don't tell anybody) ;; Decide if the agent is going to tell anybody or if they are too ;; self-absorbed to bother talking about somebody else if event-just-witnessed? or ((random 100) > (self-centeredness * 100)) [ ;; We'll just use a simple attenuation model because the previous attempt is ;; too slow to repeatedly calculate ifelse interest-attenuation > 0 [ set max-care-distance ( (1 / interest-attenuation) ^ 2) ] [ set max-care-distance 999999 ] ;; Is the target of the rumor close enough to the agent in the ;; "social scene" to bother telling anybody the rumor. In other ;; words, does he/she care? ;; ;; Make the attenuation "fuzzy" by making distant relations less likely ;; to be interested in repeating the rumor. if event-just-witnessed? or (((distance-nowrap rumor-target) < max-care-distance) and (random max-care-distance > (distance-nowrap rumor-target))) [ ;; Pick a random neighbor to tell ifelse eight-mode? [ set neighbor random-one-of neighbors ] [ set neighbor random-one-of neighbors4 ] ;; Tell the neighbor if wrap? or not wrapped-neighbor? neighbor [ tell-rumor neighbor "word-of-mouth" ] ;; If the internet is up and running, decide whether to email the rumor ;; based on the "desire-to-email" slider if internet and (repeat-emails? or (times-emailed < 2 and just-heard?)) and ((random 100) < (desire-to-email * 100)) [ repeat random spam-capacity ;; number of recipients depends on the "spam capacity" slider [ set people-to-email lput (random-one-of patches) people-to-email ; remember to tell the email recipient set new-emails-sent (new-emails-sent + 1) ;; count how many emails have been sent in total ] ;; Remember that we've emailed people about this before set times-emailed (times-emailed + 1) ] ] ;; end if (distance to rumor-target) ;; Tell the rumor to everybody we decided to tell if not empty? people-to-email [ foreach people-to-email [ tell-rumor ? "email" ] ] ] ;; end if (self-centeredness) end to tell-rumor [person-to-tell method] set just-heard?-of person-to-tell true set heard-via-of person-to-tell method end ;; the neighbors and neighbors4 primitives always wrap, ;; so if WRAP? is false we need to reject "neighbors" that ;; are only neighbors because of wrapping to-report wrapped-neighbor? [neighbor] ;; patch procedure report (abs (pxcor - pxcor-of neighbor) > 1) or (abs (pycor - pycor-of neighbor) > 1) end to hear-rumor ;; patch procedure if first-heard = -1 [ set first-heard time set just-heard? true ] set times-heard times-heard + 1 recolor end to update ask patches with [just-heard?] [ set just-heard? false hear-rumor ] end ;;; coloring procedures to recolor ;; patch procedure ifelse color-mode = 0 [ recolor-normal ] [ ifelse color-mode = 1 [ recolor-by-when-heard ] [ recolor-by-times-heard ] ] end to recolor-normal ;; patch procedure ifelse first-heard >= 0 [ ifelse heard-via = "word-of-mouth" [ set pcolor red ] [ set pcolor orange ] ] [ set pcolor blue ] ;; Color the target of the rumor green if (self = rumor-target) [ set pcolor green ] end to recolor-by-when-heard ;; patch procedure ifelse first-heard = -1 [ set pcolor black ] [ set pcolor scale-color yellow first-heard screen-size-x 0 ] end to recolor-by-times-heard ;; patch procedure set pcolor scale-color green times-heard 0 screen-size-x end ;;; mouse handling to spread-rumor-with-mouse if mouse-down? [ ask patch-at mouse-xcor mouse-ycor [ hear-rumor ] ] end ;;; plotting procedures to setup-plots set-current-plot "Successive Differences" set-plot-y-range 0 (count patches / 5) end to do-plots locals [new-clique] set new-clique count patches with [times-heard > 0] ;; The "Rumor Spread" plot set-current-plot "Rumor Spread" plot (new-clique / count patches) * 100 ; set-current-plot "Successive Ratios" ; ifelse clique = 0 ; [ plot 1 ] ; [ plot new-clique / clique ] ;; The "Successive Differences" plot set-current-plot "Successive Differences" plot new-clique - clique set clique new-clique ;; The "Emails Sent" plot set-current-plot "Emails Sent" plot new-emails-sent - emails-sent set emails-sent new-emails-sent end ; *** NetLogo Model Copyright Notice *** ; ; This model was created as part of the project: CONNECTED MATHEMATICS: ; MAKING SENSE OF COMPLEX PHENOMENA THROUGH BUILDING OBJECT-BASED PARALLEL ; MODELS (OBPML). The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the ; National Science Foundation (Applications of Advanced Technologies ; Program) -- grant numbers RED #9552950 and REC #9632612. ; ; Copyright 1998 by Uri Wilensky. All rights reserved. ; ; Permission to use, modify or redistribute this model is hereby granted, ; provided that both of the following requirements are followed: ; a) this copyright notice is included. ; b) this model will not be redistributed for profit without permission ; from Uri Wilensky. ; Contact Uri Wilensky for appropriate licenses for redistribution for ; profit. ; ; This model was converted to NetLogo as part of the project: ; PARTICIPATORY SIMULATIONS: NETWORK-BASED DESIGN FOR SYSTEMS LEARNING IN ; CLASSROOMS. The project gratefully acknowledges the support of the ; National Science Foundation (REPP program) -- grant number REC #9814682. ; Converted from StarLogoT to NetLogo, 2001. Updated 2002. ; ; To refer to this model in academic publications, please use: ; Wilensky, U. (1998). NetLogo Rumor Mill model. ; http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/RumorMill. ; Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, ; Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. ; ; *** End of NetLogo Model Copyright Notice *** @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 153 10 466 344 50 50 3.0 1 10 0 0 CC-WINDOW 470 102 834 207 Command Center BUTTON 16 75 137 108 setup-random setup false NIL 1 T OBSERVER PLOT 237 386 497 565 Successive Differences time difference 0.0 20.0 0.0 100.0 true false PENS "default" 1.0 0 -65536 true PLOT 501 386 717 565 Emails Sent time emails sent 0.0 20.0 0.0 2.0 true false PENS "default" 1.0 0 -65536 true PLOT 8 386 231 565 Rumor Spread time percent 0.0 20.0 0.0 100.0 true false PENS "default" 1.0 0 -65536 true BUTTON 2 222 79 255 step go NIL 1 T OBSERVER SLIDER 2 114 150 147 init-clique init-clique 0.0 10.0 0.1 0.1 1 NIL SWITCH 2 182 149 215 eight-mode? eight-mode? 0 1 -1000 SWITCH 2 148 149 181 wrap? wrap? 1 1 -1000 BUTTON 16 41 137 74 setup-one setup true NIL 1 T OBSERVER BUTTON 80 222 149 255 go go T 1 T OBSERVER BUTTON 192 350 338 383 color: normal set color-mode 0\nask patches\n [ recolor ] NIL 1 T OBSERVER BUTTON 341 350 487 383 color: when heard set color-mode 1\nask patches\n [ recolor ] NIL 1 T OBSERVER BUTTON 490 350 636 383 color: times heard set color-mode 2\nask patches\n [ recolor ] NIL 1 T OBSERVER MONITOR 23 271 113 320 clique % (clique / count patches)\n * 100 3 1 BUTTON 8 350 189 383 NIL spread-rumor-with-mouse T 1 T OBSERVER SLIDER 661 10 833 43 self-centeredness self-centeredness 0 1 0.57 0.01 1 NIL SLIDER 469 46 641 79 interest-attenuation interest-attenuation 0 1 0.0 0.01 1 NIL SWITCH 469 225 572 258 internet internet 0 1 -1000 SLIDER 469 261 641 294 desire-to-email desire-to-email 0 1 0.33 0.01 1 NIL SLIDER 644 261 816 294 spam-capacity spam-capacity 1 25 6 1 1 NIL SWITCH 469 298 610 331 repeat-emails? repeat-emails? 1 1 -1000 SWITCH 469 10 658 43 witnesses-always-talk? witnesses-always-talk? 0 1 -1000 @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- This program models the spread of a rumor about a specific person in the population (the "target" of the rumor). The rumor is spread in an Information Age environment, where email is available to all members of the population. The rumor can spread in two ways: a person who knows the rumor can tell one of their neighbors, or they can email the rumor to one or more friends. The less interested a person is in the the target of the rumor, the less likely they are to share the rumor with others. Spacial proximity is used to determine how interested the person is. In other words, the closer a person is to the target of the rumor, the more interested they are and thus the more likely they are to share the rumor. The neighbors can be defined as either the four adjacent people or the eight adjacent people. At each time step, every person who knows the rumor decides whether they are interested enough to share it. If so, they randomly choose a neighbor to tell the rumor to. They may also choose to email the rumor to a random number of friends. The simulation keeps track of who knows the rumor, how many people know the rumor, and how many "repeated tellings" of the rumor occur. It also keeps track of how many emails have been sent. HOW TO USE IT ------------- WRAP? is a switch which when set on allows the rumor to wrap top and bottom and left and right, as if the grid were on a torus. When set off, the rumor spreads as if the grid is bounded, without wrapping. EIGHT-MODE? is a switch that determines whether at each time step the rumor spreads to one of four randomly chosen neighbors, or one of eight such neighbors. WITNESSES-ALWAYS-TALK? is a switch that determines whether the rumor seeds (the "witnesses") will always decide to share the rumor, no matter how interested they are. This only applies to the members of the clique who join during setup. SELF-CENTEREDNESS is a slider that determines how self-involved members of the population are. The more self-involved they are, the less likely they are to spread rumors about others (they are too busy talking about themselves). INTEREST-ATTENUATION is a slider that determines how distance from the target of the rumor affects a person's interest in the rumor. The higher attenuation is, the more quickly interest drops off as distance increases. INTERNET is a switch that determines whether the internet (and email) is available for sharing rumors. Turning off this switch reverts the model from an Information Age model to a more traditional Rumor Mill model. DESIRE-TO-EMAIL is a slider that determines how likely a person is to email a rumor that they are interested in. The higher the value, the more likely the person is to email. SPAM-CAPACITY is a slider that determines how many emails a person is capable of sending out at a time. The sender will send a random number of emails between zero and spam-capacity when sending email. REPEAT-EMAILS? is a switch that determines whether people will send out batches of email containing a rumor more than once. When off, for example, Joe may send an email to four of his friends upon hearing the rumor, but next time he hears the rumor he will refrain from emailing. As with any rumor, it has to start somewhere, with one or more individuals. These can be thought of the "witnesses." There are three ways to control the start of the rumor: 1) Single source: Press the SETUP-ONE button. This seeds the initial witness at one point in the center of the screen and chooses a randomly-located target. 2) Random source: Press the SETUP-RANDOM button with the INIT-CLIQUE slider set greater than 0. This "seeds" the witnesses randomly by choosing a percentage of the population that knows the rumor initially. This percentage is set using the INIT-CLIQUE slider. The target of the rumor is picked randomly. 3) Choose source with mouse: Press either SETUP-ONE or SETUP-RANDOM, then press the SPREAD-RUMOR-WITH-MOUSE button. While this button is down, clicking the mouse button on a patch in the graphics window will tell the rumor to that patch. To run the model, you can either "step" through each time step using the STEP button or allow the model to simply run continuously using the GO button. The model will stop when everyone in the population knows the rumor. There are three plot windows associated with this rumor model. RUMOR SPREAD - plots the percentage of people who know the rumor at each time step. SUCCESSIVE DIFFERENCES - plots the number of new people who are hearing the rumor at each time step. EMAILS SENT - plots the number of emails that are sent in any given period The monitor CLIQUE% is the percentage of the patches that have heard the rumor. The three coloring buttons to the right of the graphics window give you topographic maps of the screen. The COLOR: NORMAL button colors the screen green for the target of the rumor, red for people who have heard the rumor via word-of-mouth, orange for people who have heard the rumor via email, and blue for people who do not yet know the rumor. The COLOR: WHEN HEARD button colors the screen different shades of YELLOW according to the first time that location heard the rumor. The COLOR: TIMES HEARD button colors the screen different shades of GREEN according to the number of times that location has heard the rumor. THINGS TO NOTICE ---------------- It is interesting to note that the speed of the rumor's spread can be heavily dependent on whether those who know the rumor are interested in the rumor's target. A slowly-spreading rumor can explode if emailed to a particularly interested party. Experiment with interest-attenuation to see how this affects the spread. As with the traditional Rumor Mill model, the rumor spread slows down once a critical mass of very interested parties know the rumor. It can be interesting to compare the manner in which rumors spread with the internet available versus when it is not available. Desire-to-email and spam-capacity significantly affect the spread of the rumor in the Information Age, as does the interest-attenuation. THINGS TO TRY ------------- Adjust INTEREST-ATTENUATION to get more or less people interested in spreading the rumor. How does a high attenuation affect the likelihood of a rumor spreading wildly via the internet? Explore how changing peoples' ability to communicate with large number of people via the internet affects the speed of the rumor's spread. Why is a rumor more likely to take root when people have a higher email capacity? EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- Here are some suggestions for ways to extend the model. - Introduce a model of rumor accuracy. As the rumor takes more "jumps", the rumor's accuracy may decrease. How accurate is the version of the rumor that outlying members of the clique hear? - Change the model for interest-attenuation. How would a more complex model of a person's interest in the rumor affect its spread? - Introduce physical barriers into the simulation. These spatial barriers would be obstacles around which the rumor would have to spread. One could imagine a room where there was only a one cell entry. How long would it take to reach the entire population in this case? And how would that curve (the function of the number of people who know the rumor versus time) compare to the spread of the rumor when there was no such barrier? How would the presence of the internet affect such a model? NETLOGO FEATURES ---------------- Note the use of the "neighbors" and "neighbors4" primitives to implement 8-mode and 4-mode, respectively. RELATED MODELS -------------- Virus, AIDS CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- Modified by Greg Dunham Oct 9, 2003 from the original Rumor Mill model by Uri Wilensky (see below for full reference). This model is itself an extension of a physical experiment where spatial proximity was not a factor in the spread of the rumor. Contact Helen M. Doerr at hmdoerr@syr.edu regarding papers in preparation. Thanks to Dr. Doerr for inspiration for this model. To refer to this model in academic publications, please use: Wilensky, U. (1998). NetLogo Rumor Mill model. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/RumorMill. 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